Tuesday, June 12, 2007

Would you do it again the same way if you could do it over?

This is the question I ask it to myself when I bust out of a MTT. If I am more inclined to answer yes then I feel I have succeeded. Did I get my money in with the best hand, did I give myself the best chance to win the tourney? Ect.. If the answer is no time to re-evaluate and find the leaks. Why did I push when he had no fold equity, why did I not pick up the warning signs from his betting patterns, ect..?

After last night's MATH I pondered this question over and over, but before we get to my conclusion lets set up the problem. We had 36 runners and my table was you typical Blonkament Table with LAGs to super LAGs. During the first 13 hands I picked up KK early but no action so my stack was just were I started 3K.

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Yesterday I skipped lunch and decided to read a little more of the Full Tilt Tournament Guide, after all it is one of my goals this week. I read the interesting chapter that Quiet Lion wrote about online MTTs and one of the key points he drove home was that in the early stages of MTTs are all about implied odds. In other words the first few levels (specifically the first 3 levels in a deepstack)you can make some questionable calls if you feel that implied odds justify them. Hmmm very interesting stuff.

After Lunch I perused Hoy's archive of the Anatomy of the slowplay 1-3, Hoy states his goal when he slowplays a monster is to get every chip period, and he went into great lengths to explains the various methods how he gets his opponent to commit all their chips to a play where he is the favorite. Hmmm very interesting stuff.
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Hand number 14 started off very interesting, I am in the BB with KdJd and UTG makes it 70 to go, now believe it or not more time than not I will let this hand go, especially in a HU situation with the original UTG raiser. Most time if I am going to play KJ suited I would like a multiway pot. But I read something early today about implied odds... hmmmm....... I think I might just call and see a flop.

Well the flop slapped me right in the face Kc8dJd, top pair decent kicker, 9 outs to the second nut flush and backdoor straight. This a monster, but how can I get all of his chips ....... hmmm... I think I read something earlier today about slowplaying a monster ...... I think I will check and see how much he likes his hand. So cefredmd fires out a little over 1/2 pot, standard Cbet and then re-raise him 2.5 his bet just to keep him interested, when ...................... wham he shoves all in. So should I be happy or mad, happy that I got what I wanted which is an opportunity to stack him or mad that I am probably behind to either AA, KK or AK. My action was made as soon as I saw the flop but lets look at the odds of the 3 hands before we get to the results, for simplicity we will assume that my opponent doesn't have a diamond.

Against AA, I am favorite 51%

Against AK I am 47.27%
And against KK I am 30.91%
So all in all I am not that bad shape and pots odds compel me to call my last $2K for a $6K even if against a set. So we get in and I am somewhat please to see that I am against AhAd but I am disappointed to see he has the Ad

Here a the odds now that I know I am against the AhAd - 45.96%

And here is the board offering no help!


And the Gigli goes to:


Now to answer the question would I do again? Yes, because of few circumstances. It is BBT tourney and I wanted and needed to win the tourney not just slide into the points in order to have a shot at Bayne_s on the leaderboard. I need to book a win or decent showing because of the motivational factor I need going into the WSOP. I actually felt really good about this decision because I made the plan and stuck with it even thought it didn't have the desired outcome.

6 comments:

NewinNov said...

You are a braver man than me. So earlier on in the tourney you want to risk your tournament life on a coin flip or worse? I just don't see your hand as a monster, good yes but not a monster. If you can see the turn for a reasonable price, so be it, but not for all your chips. If you checked you probably would have received a relatively cheap shot at the turn where you could reevaluate. Yesterday at the WSOP a dealer said something along the line of you don't put all your chips on the line on a draw heads up. Just a thought.

oossuuu754 said...

One thing you are not looking at is the incomplete information I had at the time,

I checked to him (with the intent of check raising) and he put out what I considered a standard continuation bet which could have been anything from 99 to AQ.

I am not willing to gamble on coin flip that early preflop, but I didnt know it was a coin flip until after I check raised him and he pushed, however I did know that I was committed to see the river after that flop. Now granted I can just call and see the turn but that would nullify the whole reason I called the original raise implied odds of flopping a big hand.

Now I consider big hands to be anytime I get better odds on my money than I have to put up and greatly influence my ultimate outcome in tourney. I was getting 3 to 1 to call, and the worst case I am 3 to 1 to win best case I am better than 2:1 to win so that is my rationale.

bayne_s said...

Bottom line is you have to trust your reads until you have more information than re-evaluate.

Read on continuation bet was wrong but after he shoves when you look at pot odds the only hands you don't want to see are sets, AdK.

oossuuu754 said...

I dont know how you say I was wrong on my read. In hindsight yes but I dont have that luxury. If you automatically assume an UTG raise is AA you will are bit to tight on your starting ranges.

So both of you are advocating for to just call the flop, and then wait a see? If the 3rd diamond falls how do you propose to get more of his chips in the pot? If so smooth call you cant justify the pot odds of the smooth call of 3 to 1 when I am 3.5 to one to win. It is only with the implied odds figured that make this play profitable.

Alan aka RecessRampage said...

FWIW... I don't think there was anything wrong there. You flopped a nice draw (unless he had a set, you had... I don't know, a lot of outs) and against a standard cbet, the raise was nice too. The guy shoved which at that point meant you were most likely behind. But also, at that point, you already had the pot odds to call. I mean if you fold there, then you a) you really have no business playing KJs and b) you just wasted the check raise. Sometimes, things don't work out but I agree with your call.

But again, just my 2 cents... which may not even be worth that much... :)

bayne_s said...

OOSSUUU,

When you referred to his post-flop bet as a C-bet I took it to mean that you thought it was a case of a pre-flop raiser continuing to show aggression and that you thought you were ahead.

Agree you are not going to stack him if a flush gets there on turn if you just call his bet. A T on turn may give you a chance to stack him as he will have overpair and gutshot.